The strong signal from the indicators means that the recession could be over soon. Three successive monthly increases, each larger than the one before, bring the level of the leading series above the pre-recession peak.

Consumer sentiment about job prospects over the next six months dipped in January. Thus, not only are the indicators suggesting modest gains in hiring, but consumers also do not think more new jobs will start opening up this spring.

They are shocked by the increases (in monthly payments) they are getting.

While consumers have managed to keep the U.S. out of a recession for several years now, that soon may no longer be the case.

We're sending a strong and clear signal

I have never been able to come up with any clear indicators. There is no mechanical means to identify them.