Consumer sentiment about job prospects over the next six months dipped in January. Thus, not only are the indicators suggesting modest gains in hiring, but consumers also do not think more new jobs will start opening up this spring.

These indicators are suggesting a pickup in economic activity over the next few months now that the monetary constraint on growth has been lifted. Hooray.

Our indicators are not even close to suggesting such lofty returns.

The strong signal from the indicators means that the recession could be over soon. Three successive monthly increases, each larger than the one before, bring the level of the leading series above the pre-recession peak.

I would be very surprised if they did not emerge in the next six months. But they've had a lot of misfires, and if they were better focused at the top they'd be out by now. They can get out, but if they don't do it with new management they'll be back in if they're not careful.

I probably have 30 or 40 market timing indicators that are sentiment based.