It's been below average in a lot of places.

April can be a violent month.

Much of the valley has been at or below freezing for the last three days.

This will help. But one good year doesn't pull you out of a drought.

Extreme warm temperatures early on and wet, heavy rains could change that. That's what usually causes flooding.

That's the problem with forecast modeling. It assumes current conditions and normal weather throughout the period. That can go out the window.