What we're waiting to see is whether the increase in commodity prices will sift through into core inflation.

Prices will keep pace with inflation, which is expected to reach 10-10.5%, given no cataclysms.

The Fed will want several months to confirm that inflation risks have shifted lower and there are subtle phrases that suggest they're not really believers. Take core [personal consumption expenditure inflation] down to 1.5% and they'll sing a louder tune.

We think inflation in the middle of this year will be back below target. We are likely to see 5 percent base rates by the middle of the year.

The ECB will want to signal that it doesn't want to see the headline inflation rate translate through into higher wage settlements next year.

This will put upward pressure on both month-on-month and year-on-year inflation this month.