Weather continues to be the key short term factor determining energy price direction.

You can't predict the weather. Hurricanes can move in any direction. If you evacuate two or three times and it saves your life only once, that once is enough.

Such is the momentum and rigidity in views surrounding the Iranian issue, and such is the intensity of the attacks in Nigeria, that we would have to say that we believe the threats to supply are credible in both cases.

At $63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.

There is a strategic element to it. It's something that we've seen before. Japan was doing the same thing about 10 to 15 years ago, with a lot of its natural resource companies, including oil companies, buying into foreign projects.

Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption.