Such is the momentum and rigidity in views surrounding the Iranian issue, and such is the intensity of the attacks in Nigeria, that we would have to say that we believe the threats to supply are credible in both cases.

At $63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.

Weather continues to be the key short term factor determining energy price direction.

There is a strategic element to it. It's something that we've seen before. Japan was doing the same thing about 10 to 15 years ago, with a lot of its natural resource companies, including oil companies, buying into foreign projects.

Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption.

The U.S. refinery system has been showing signs of severe tightness. The shut-in of refining capacity from Katrina is then not so much a straw, but rather a large log on top of an already fully laden camel.