Unless it's over 50 percent, I'm always skeptical. It could pass. It could fail. You can't really make a call.

The overall leads and sizes of the leads haven't changed all that much, which tells me that, other than real-interested, more-tuned-in voters, the large majority of voters haven't paid all that much attention.

There really is a legitimate up-for-grabs nature to the race. In neither case can you say that [Crist and Davis are] solid front-runners.

He can rally the faithful a little bit, but I don't know that he'll rally the middle ground people. People want to stand behind their country and government when they can, but I think they're just looking for something positive out of Iraq, and they're not getting it from the media.

Fortunately for the president, it's the summer of '05. The critical time will be July of next year. They've got about a year to get the ball up the field a little bit. What that is, I don't know, but I suspect that involves stability, more local control, and starting to pull the troops out because they can, not because it's necessary for the US midterms.

Nevada was never Carter country back in the 1970s, and I just don't think Jack Carter has much of a chance, although you never completely dismiss anyone. Absent any fiasco by Ensign, Carter is going to have a tough time.