This report provides the first indication of the state of capital spending in the second quarter, and the data were quite strong.

We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.

With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.

Consumer spending, which [has] kept the economy afloat, should decline in the third quarter and lead us into a formal, albeit shallow, recession.

Oddly, the statement accompanying the [cut] was uniformly negative in its assessment of the economy, which would have been consistent with a bigger move. We assume [Fed policy makers were] divided and that the smaller move allowed a consensus to be formed.

We have to stay tuned for more economic data.