Consumer spending, which [has] kept the economy afloat, should decline in the third quarter and lead us into a formal, albeit shallow, recession.

We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.

With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.

Oddly, the statement accompanying the [cut] was uniformly negative in its assessment of the economy, which would have been consistent with a bigger move. We assume [Fed policy makers were] divided and that the smaller move allowed a consensus to be formed.

We have to stay tuned for more economic data.

The new economy is very, very much alive and well. This is that healthy shakeout of Internet companies that many of us have been talking about for months. Now it's time to sift through the rubble and see what's left standing -- and what will grow in its place.