The balance will eventually change, but these numbers suggest the caution businesses have been showing is warranted. They also say we might be waiting until early 2004 before we see much stronger business investment.

It would be unreasonable to conclude this will be a permanent change. That balance is going to continue to fluctuate.

I think people are cautious, but I think caution is different from resistance. Universities are slow to change. ... I think there is an institutional crisis when a new field emerges and comes into its own.

What has gone on here in the past, I can never change. I would caution a rush to judgment on the process of winning the entire community. We believe it will happen over time.

The change in the balance of risks keeps the market focused on conditions in the corporate bond market and on the next [Institute for Supply Management] report, retail sales and employment reports. We think if there's any severe weakness in any of those reports, the Fed will lower interest rates at the Sept. 24 meeting.

Consumer sentiment about job prospects over the next six months dipped in January. Thus, not only are the indicators suggesting modest gains in hiring, but consumers also do not think more new jobs will start opening up this spring.