Slower growth in producer prices makes China's exports more competitive, which means the nominal exchange rate can be allowed to appreciate without hurting exporters.

Slower U.S. growth may reduce growth in oil demand in the second half of the year. We are seeing proof of reduced U.S. consumer confidence.

Concern about supply means the risk premium in prices is on the rise. Iran is the major problem, but Nigeria coming on top makes matters worse.

We should see a retreat in prices after the US inventory data is released. That's because I expect a significant build in crude, in the range of five to six million barrels.

Now that the weather forecast has changed to predict warmer weather, the prices have come down quite significantly.

Prices haven?t fallen by much because of the heavy refinery maintenance seen around March, which still raises some concerns over supply particularly for gasoline.