Now that the weather forecast has changed to predict warmer weather, the prices have come down quite significantly.

The period of forecasted warm weather in the United States has been extended to the first four weeks of the new year. This has driven the price of all energy commodities down.

The seasonal effect of cold weather, stronger demand for heating oil, will pull higher the whole energy complex higher.

We should see a retreat in prices after the US inventory data is released. That's because I expect a significant build in crude, in the range of five to six million barrels.

Prices haven?t fallen by much because of the heavy refinery maintenance seen around March, which still raises some concerns over supply particularly for gasoline.

Concern about supply means the risk premium in prices is on the rise. Iran is the major problem, but Nigeria coming on top makes matters worse.