Right now it's wonderful to celebrate good earnings growth in the first quarter and nice growth in the second quarter, but it's going to get a heck of a lot harder in the third and fourth quarters.

We really set the tone in the first quarter. We played a good second quarter, and it was nice that everyone got to play. The key was establishing the tone in the first half.

Earnings were up 6 percent from the first quarter, making the second quarter of 2000 Alcoa's eighth consecutive quarter of improved earnings,

The first-quarter forecast is for earnings to grow 10.5 percent, although that estimate may drift lower.

The estimates are for earnings to be down 50 percent in the second quarter, 37 percent in the third quarter, and 12 percent in the fourth.

We're going to have awful earnings reports for the second and third-quarter so we have to brace ourselves for that. To make a sustained rally, we need to see economic news and earnings news start to turn positive and we don't see that happening until the fourth quarter.