The estimates are for earnings to be down 50 percent in the second quarter, 37 percent in the third quarter, and 12 percent in the fourth.

I think we're still in a tough period for corporate earnings. And the downward revisions [for second quarter profits] have been accelerating.

We're going to have awful earnings reports for the second and third-quarter so we have to brace ourselves for that. To make a sustained rally, we need to see economic news and earnings news start to turn positive and we don't see that happening until the fourth quarter.

Earnings were up 6 percent from the first quarter, making the second quarter of 2000 Alcoa's eighth consecutive quarter of improved earnings,

Any deviation from that 15 percent for the quarter is expected to be lower, not higher.

I think it's pretty clear now we are in a Fed-induced slowdown for the third quarter, so I'm sure those [positive] numbers are going to come down.