If the Fed were going to pause in response to Katrina, it probably would be in November and December,

It looks like we are in for at least a pause.

The Fed chair doesn't matter a lot to the average person in normal times. He matters an awful lot when things aren't going well -- when the financial markets freeze, or there's a 9/11 or Y2K or Iraq war. When people lose confidence, the Fed chairman is vital to restoring confidence and ensuring functioning financial markets and economy.

The November minutes were taken as a sign of an impending pause and I don't think the Fed wants to give that message. If the economy is still growing fast, they may have to raise rates above 5 percent.

Holding the rate in December was just a pause.

There's a point at which the Fed has to indicate that it has to pause and look around for a while, and that could come in these minutes, or the next ones.