You take the population of vehicles in the field (A) and multiply it by the probable rate of failure (B), then multiply the result by the average out-of-court settlement (C).A times B times C equals X. This is what it will cost if we don't initiate a recall.If X is greater than the cost of a recall, we recall all the cars and no one gets hurt.If X is less than the cost of a recall, then we don't recall.