You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.

When you get into statistical analysis, you don't really expect to achieve fame. Or to become an Internet meme. Or be parodied by 'The Onion' - or be the subject of a cartoon in 'The New Yorker.' I guess I'm kind of an outlier there.

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.

The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.

[Pac-10 Commissioner Tom Hansen said Stoops is an example of the upgraded coaching across the conference.] It's pretty clear that Mike has that program headed in a good direction, ... I don't think there's any doubt he's going to succeed there.

He doesn't have to say anything; he leads by example. And what he says pretty much goes. Over the years he has gained every kid's respect, and I don't mean every kid on the team, I mean every kid in the school.