While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.

We continue to believe that the underlying drivers of productivity growth are turning less favorable,

The U.S. consumer roars back.

There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched,

A year ago, it was not that difficult to predict six months in advance where they were going to be. That's going to be harder when you are at 5 percent and you think the economy is going to be weak enough to get them to cut rates.

The chairman now sounds notably more worried than previously that house prices have risen too much and that the downturn could have a severe effect on the U.S. economy.