What Merkel is trying to do is to restore to some extent that balancing function within Europe and between Europe and the U.S..

It is a proxy battle for a more flexible employment model versus what the French like to call a social model for Europe.

Germany had a balancing function not only in European politics but in the European Union, between Britain and France, between Western Europe and Eastern Europe, and between Europe and the United States.

The two countries cooperate on terrorism but German public opinion is very sensitive about certain tactics that the Americans are employing.

But for the Europeans, it is also important to maintain their good ties with the Russians and the Chinese. The cooperation or the lack of obstruction you see from Russia and China at the moment is from the fact that the Europeans gained credibility in the past by going down the negotiations path.

I'm worried about Turkey because there's a deadline for them to lift restrictions on Cypriot ships going into their ports. This will come to a head and cause an incident.