We've started to see a gradual improvement in the labor market, and that will slowly feed through to consumer spending and boost services more widely.

We should see some small increases in retail sales over coming months, but without a decent pickup in the labor market and incomes, we won't see much of an improvement.

Given the continued improvement in labor and wage conditions of late and the likelihood that that will be sustained, consumer spending is most likely to lead the current economic growth until the present cycle ends.

The improvement in consumers' mood suggests that business activity and labor market activity will continue to pick up over the next several months.

Consumers are still the weakest element within the recovery. European companies are still reluctant to hire, and it will take a long period of recovery before they start to do so.

This is a modest improvement, but we expect bigger improvements in the months ahead, as the labor market usually lags the economic cycle.