We'll see strong increases in consumption towards the end of the year because of the VAT effect. The World Cup will also play a role.

Private consumption is likely to remain weak.

That will probably keep the ECB waiting until September, rather than going for a rate rise, as a done deal, every quarter.

The labor market situation won't dramatically improve and oil prices are still a problem. Relatively weak consumption is one of the reasons why the German economy won't gather a lot of speed this year.

German manufacturers have rather good support from the orders side. In addition, they reduced their debt and financing conditions have improved.

We would expect the seasonally adjusted total to decline in the coming months, but there is not likely to be any major turnaround because companies are still restructuring and the structural problems on the labor market are still there.