We'd like to combine our overall upbeat analysis of consumer spending and retail activity with our baby boom spending thesis. And this is basically grounded on the observation that baby boomers tend to spend more on quality of life and personal indulgences than their parents did when they were at the same age.

Christine Callies

Activity Analysis Baby Boom Combine Consumer Overall Retail Spending Thesis

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We haven't had a single year of falling consumer spending since 1938. There's no boom or bust in consumer spending.

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The recovery in consumer spending is in its infancy. Retail growth in real terms has been the weakest in 12 years and is just picking itself up from the bottom. The car market is still weak, with seasonally adjusted sales falling 2 per cent in March after a 2 per cent fall in February.

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During fiscal 2006, we expect the retail market to remain extremely competitive and tighter consumer spending to continue for at least the first half.

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We don't see any indication that the Fed would have caused to start talking more tolerantly about monetary policy. And we don't think the bond market has any particular reason to go down to lower yield levels.

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Wall Street has come pretty close to being an around-the-clock enterprise anyway.

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