We were expecting a kind of balancing out between rising business sentiment and consumer confidence, which we thought would slip, but in fact we have improved on both fronts.

Moreover, the four motors of consumption -- that is wages, inflation, unemployment and consumer confidence -- are on a downward trend and should drag spending down.

The rebound is very slow, gradual and uncertain. The survey shows a changing scenario in July, notably on the personal and general business outlooks which deteriorated significantly.

For the moment there is absolutely no sign of a turnaround, ... The impact of the global slowdown on the French economy will continue to be felt in 2002.

This is the highest inflation rate we've seen in over three years and much higher than 0.3 percent in June 1999, ... Euro-zone inflation should come in around 2.2 percent in June, and the ECB is likely to respond with a 25-basis-point rate rise in September.

The broad picture looks better than expected but we have to watch figures very carefully. A downward correction driven by a relapse in consumer spending is very likely in the fourth quarter. That's why I remain cautious.