We think the bank has left the door open for a pause in October, but a rate hike would follow in December. That would take the overnight rate to three per cent by year's end.

It's definitely a sweet spot in the Canadian economy.

Everything must come to an end. Home-ownership levels are at record highs. How far can you go after that?

Consumers have a lot going for them in this holiday shopping season.

Today's retail sales report does not alter, in any way, our expectations for the Bank of Canada to continue lifting rates up to a more neutral level of four per cent by the end of April.

This still reflects pre-Katrina pump prices, suggesting that the following month's headline CPI number will probably be much, much higher.