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We see sturdy hiring as a factor that continues to support U.S. economic growth.
Ed McKelvey
Growth
Support
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Movements in the unemployment rate will tell Fed officials whether growth is absorbing unused capacity.
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The really surprising thing is the lack of inflation given this kind of growth.
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Trade is a drag (on growth) and that tends to hit manufacturing harder than the rest of the economy.
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At the margin they reinforced our growing sense that Fed tightening might stop before the federal funds rate reaches the 5 percent level we are currently forecasting.
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It's debatable how much the dividend-tax elimination will stimulate the economy, particularly in the short run.
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