We can't extrapolate national trends from Manhattan markets.

The credit markets have been very useful guides to industry prospects. Whatever reassuring signals they are sending shouldn't be ignored.

If you look at long-term trends in the markets the last 20, 30, 40 years, they are typically seven- to-10-year cycles where large caps do well, and then small caps do well,

There's already been a considerable softening in housing demand which preceded the recent rise in mortgage rates. Which leads me to believe that the weakness at a minimum will continue, and may likely accelerate.

This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.

This is a return to normalcy, and that is especially good after what seemed like a much more serious event for the economy just a month or two ago.