Things are looking better on the industrial side. The third quarter looks quite strong overall and the second half of the year is likely to be better than the first.

What we've seen over the past few months is a very gradual recovery in retail sales. We're likely to see a continued recovery in coming months, but nothing dramatic.

Retail sales have shown tentative signs of a modest recovery from weak levels, but in our view a continuing threat remains the weakness of the labor market ... which may slow the pace of consumer spending.

Concerns over (higher energy prices) feeding into higher wages have so far not materialized, which has dampened the risk of a rise in inflation expectations.

There is a real difference in mentality. Consumers from poorer European countries are more cautious and tend to save more and borrow less.

Koizumi indicated clearly that he intends to step
down next year. I have no reason to doubt his
word. For better or worse, he tends to do what he
says he is going to do.