They can use the bombings to again push Tony Blair on the issue of Iraq.

pretext for intervention in northern Iraq by Iran and Iraq.

The first and last story has to do with resolving the crisis in Iraq. Any forecast we do for next year has embedded in it some judgment about how things will go there.

There are two real targets for intelligence: the Islamic world and China. It's pretty clear that the types of people who are going to be high on their recruitment list are going to be Asian-looking, Asian-language- speaking Brits.

It's a recruitment pitch, it's a call to arms, it's telling the Muslim community to get more active.

It would, in effect, be an instant press conference if they were to do something,