These declines do seem to be irreversible now,

Most declines halted this year.

Every fair from fair sometime declines

The IEA report is very neutral. It is playing up the demand slowdown in China and 8 out of 9 OECD countries and down-playing the gasoline situation.

Refiners are exhausted, like runners in mid-marathon. They've been pushing very hard since last year. As a practical matter, these things have limits. If you push too hard, capacity drops.

It is not at all surprising that with the clumsy handling of the Yukos situation we started to see production falls last October. But now as things are getting back to normal we may see a production recovery back on track.