There will be a rude awaking early next year. We expect first-quarter gross domestic product to contract.

A key hindrance to growth is disappearing.

Exports are thriving, but will tail off at the end of the year as the world economy weakens.

Order books are full and people are operating closer to capacity, so that companies are building up employment again.

Exports are strong and even consumption is beginning to bounce back. Companies appear to be willing to start hiring again.

We expect unemployment to continue to decline over the course of this year and next. The increase in January provides no cause to change this upbeat assessment.