The supply-demand balance is shifting. This is clearly the case with gasoline, and now things are getting a little looser with crude oil as well.

It could be better than the Barnett. It's in the early days, and I don't think the investment community's really woken up to that yet.

The risk appears greatest for the gas names that have outperformed considerably over the last 12 months, even those with strong fundamentals.

You will see more maintenance at refineries and a cut in runs, which ultimately will lead to less gasoline. Imports will also drop off as prices move lower.

I suspect you may see some slowing up if you go down to $5 gas in the next month. That will be a good test of how good they think it is.

Three years out, they can recover much of the cash outlay.