The September 11 attacks pushed the U.S. economy into a recession that will be mild both in depth and duration.

We had all sorts of judgments about where the economy is heading before the hurricane. The hurricane alters our judgments.

The rapid easing of monetary and fiscal policy this time around should enable the economy to return to positive growth more quickly than usual and with lower interest rates and inflation than during the 1990s expansion.

The Federal Reserve has been going through a tightening cycle. Whenever the Fed tightens, whatever financial fragilities there are in the economy are going to get exacerbated.

At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yield curve has often been a precursor to a recession occurring within a year.

There is no honeymoon -- not in a financial system like ours, not in this country where people are free to take risks and reap the consequences.