The oil is in the ground waiting to be exploited. But how do we get access to what is left? At the end of the day the drill bit has to hit the ground.

The upstream and downstream constraints are real and long-term and we're seeing almost daily examples of them. We're going to have a very strong price environment until the steam is taken out of demand or until investment catches up and restores a spare capacity cushion to production and refining.

If there is a bearish theme, it's about U.S. product demand.

This kind of figure is bound to generate negative headlines for New Zealand. Higher oil prices also suggest the deficit could widen further.

There's a geopolitical overlay that's going to look similar to oil.

This is a gift to gas station operators and to oil companies.