The market has coped very well with the hurricane situation on the surface, particularly on the refinery side,

in the short term we could see a knee-jerk reaction higher.

You have to look at the series trend, and [prices] are definitely in an upward move.

OPEC has shown itself to be market-savvy by recognizing that waiting for the price band mechanism to kick-in could cause a slump well below $22 a barrel.

Compliance will improve from February levels, partly because the winter demand will not be there and also because of the fear that prices will slump if OPEC is not seen to be in firm control.

As far as the Middle East is concerned, there is still strong justification for a premium to remain in the market until it is clear the situation is much calmer on the ground,