The Iranian situation is making us all very nervous... We don't seem to be getting anywhere on the diplomatic solutions.

The IEA report is very neutral. It is playing up the demand slowdown in China and 8 out of 9 OECD countries and down-playing the gasoline situation.

Refiners are exhausted, like runners in mid-marathon. They've been pushing very hard since last year. As a practical matter, these things have limits. If you push too hard, capacity drops.

It is not at all surprising that with the clumsy handling of the Yukos situation we started to see production falls last October. But now as things are getting back to normal we may see a production recovery back on track.

Initially the market was extremely disappointed with the figures, that is they were prepared to see much larger draws (falls), particularly in distillates.

U.S. gasoline may be rattling people's cages. We're going to see another steep draw. That, Nigeria and Iran are the market's three hot buttons right now.