The inflation rate keeps moving downward. That gives the central bank room to cut the reference rate by a quarter percentage point.

Inflation was expected to pick up on food supply, but it's still within the central bank's target.

Price accords had a temporary effect to slow inflation last month. It's temporary because the causes of inflation are related to strong domestic demand in response to expansive monetary and fiscal policies. Furthermore, the peso weakening and lower unemployment should add more pressure to the price levels.

My concern is that when the economy begins to slow, as I expect this year, revenue will fall as well, but it will be hard for the government to slow spending.

The export sector is getting better and is probably going to continue being strong in the first quarter.

The reference rate might fall in April by another 25 basis points.