The headline number came in a lot weaker than expected, but when you comb through all the revisions, you come down in line with expectations. The momentum in February is clearly weaker.

A 25 basis-point (one-quarter percentage point) move is very likely and is the most likely outcome.

The data gives investors hope the Fed won't have to stay aggressive too long.

A little sell-off today should not be surprising in front of such an important report.

The Fed is remaining vigilant against inflation, which helps 10-year notes and 30-year bonds. But two-year notes still have to deal with the likelihood of higher interest rates this year.

There's a lot of focus in the bond market on oil. It's been such a hot story because of people's fears of higher inflation.