The Fed's inaction suggests that [policy makers] expect a quick rebound -- we do too -- which is why the next round of survey data, starting with today's Philly Fed, is so important,

This may mark the start of an upturn in exports, but it's too soon to be sure.

This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,

This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.

Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.

Overall, still quite strong, but a bit disconcerting nonetheless.