The Fed will welcome this report as it suggests that slower economic growth will be extended into the third quarter. The probability of an August rate increase continues to diminish and is now below 50 percent.

Steven Wood

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Higher claims suggest slower job gains, which should dampen income growth, consumer spending, and overall economic activity.

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The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.

— Steven Wood

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This is the first year-on-year decline after years of phenomenal growth.

We remain overweight on the global growth proxies of Taiwan, [South] Korea and Singapore.

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