The Dow breaking above 11,000 might be a nice holiday present for the U.S. economy in that it should boost the confidence of both consumers and businesses and lay the basis for a livelier-than-expected 2006.

Unless energy prices ease, the holiday shopping season will probably be mediocre at best.

The U.S. economy is slumping.

The U.S. economy is slumping,

No quick recovery. It's going to be a struggle for the U.S. economy to get back up to its trend rate of growth.

This could mark a turning point. After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead.