The biggest risk for IBM is not the restatement of revenues and growth, it's more the potential for a crisis of confidence.

There is great potential for growth in Africa, as long as risk is controlled in the best way possible.

It's a big challenge for new management to have to come in and handle the crisis. They now have 28 days to certify all the data. It's not clear they can get everything done that they have to get done.

If unearned revenue keeps sliding, it suggests the growth story for Microsoft has gotten long in the tooth and that would raise more worries about the valuation,

Novell and Red Hat are very expensive stocks, even with their strong growth,

The situation is far healthier. The risk of another Asian crisis is very low.