The amount of oil that can be produced each day can actually be insured. Katrina is forecast to make a more direct hit on those offshore platforms than Ivan.

[Meanwhile Chavez is picking fights with foreign oil companies — including Shell, ExxonMobil, Repsol YPF, Chevron, BP, and Total that have been working in Venezuela for years. Thirty-two publicly traded oil companies are accused of owing Venezuela $4 billion in back taxes for overproduction — something they deny. This follows Venezuela's hikes in production royalties from 1% to 16.7% in October, hikes in taxes on operating agreements from 32% to 50% in April, and a declared end to contracted dollar payments to foreign oil field operators in May.] The desire to operate in Venezuela, ... is fading fast.

When we think about economic loss and insured loss, there are few events that rival Katrina. The World Trade Center disaster is one.

The fact that it is fast moving would limit things like damage from rain fall. But the fast movement contributes higher wind speeds and means it will be fairly strong when it crosses the state.

We have almost a third of the state's (insured property) exposure from Miami to Palm Beach. Also if it were to intensify as it passed over warmer waters in the Gulf Stream, it would be most dangerous.

As long as the prospect of sanctioning 4 million barrels per day of Iranian oil is out there, the Iranian situation, in our view, will be the front and center issue that will command market attention.