That's not to say consumer spending will collapse, but there's no doubt it will lag growth in the rest of the economy. I'm hoping [business] capital investment will take up some of the slack.

The hurricane impact in the fourth quarter is going to be quite evident and people will look beyond that. Growth is still going to be solid in the first half and the market is slightly under-pricing the risk in Fed tightening.

My suspicion is that the dollar will remain relatively strong because, even if the ECB starts lowering rates, they've got a lot of catching up to do, ... The prognosis for the dollar remains cautiously optimistic.

This will certainly heat up the debate at the central bank,

I still believe, and I believe this quite strongly, that the manufacturing sector will, in fact, recover. This is only one month.

My suspicion is that the dollar will remain relatively strong because, even if the ECB starts lowering rates, they've got a lot of catching up to do. The prognosis for the dollar remains cautiously optimistic.