That's going to keep them high through the spring.

Although some member countries have signaled an interest in reducing the cartel's production output target of 28 million b/d due to concerns of oversupply, a reduction is unlikely, in our view, given the current high crude oil prices, which have gained $5/bbl this year primarily as a result of a geopolitical risk in Iran and Nigeria.

While sanctions would be aimed at coercing Iran to abandon its nuclear-testing program, the world is reliant on Iran continuing to export crude oil into the global markets in order to keep prices from rising, which is a point that Iranian officials have been quick to make.

While sanctions would be aimed at coercing Iran to abandon its nuclear testing program, the world is reliant on Iran continuing to export crude oil into the global markets in order to keep prices from rising, which is a point that Iranian officials have been quick to make.

The recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico highlighted that crude oil prices are following those of gasoline and other refined products. Given our analysis that shows global refining capacity only increasing by 4.3 million bpd (5%) by 2010, we expect this pattern to continue in the coming years, supporting high prices.

Refiners had every incentive to get back up because there was a lot of money to be made.