Taking into consideration the fact that mortgage rates have fallen from the earlier peak at the end of March, we have lowered our forecast for long-term rates. We now expect that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates will likely end up somewhere between 5.9 percent and 6.2 percent by the end of this year.

Although mortgage rates have risen in the last two weeks, they are still below last year's annual average of about 7 percent and well below 2000's average of 8 percent. The current rising rates will dull the edge of the refinancing market, but there remain homeowners who have put off refinancing for one reason or another who may now rush to their lender to take advantage of current rates.

Mortgage rates this week are at seven-month lows and teetering on the 45-year low levels of last summer,

So far this year, fixed-rate mortgage rates have risen only slightly. Long-term mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were two months ago.

Freddie Mac's own economic forecast calls for a mild and gradual increase in 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates to about 6 percent by the end of the year. Low mortgage rates will sustain a brisk housing market, leading to record home sales and single-family construction this year.

Despite the gradual rise in mortgage rates over the last two months, housing starts were actually up in September highlighting the resiliency of the housing market, ... As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter.