Stock inflows are likely to continue, strengthening the Taiwan dollar. There's a higher chance of the currency rising.

The bigger factor for the Taiwan dollar is still the yen's performance against the US dollar.

There will be a short-term negative effect on the Taiwan dollar as people start to speculate who the next premier will be and how that will affect economic reform.

Foreigners have bought a lot of Taiwan's stocks, making it the biggest factor strengthening the currency.

There will probably be some funds flowing out of Taiwan, weakening the currency. More losses in the stock index may prompt some investors to sell more shares. The Taiwan dollar has room to decline today.

Many of us like to think of financial economics as a science, but complex events like the financial crisis suggest that this conceit may be more wishful thinking than reality.