So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

People always underestimate the impact of technology. To give you an example: In the 1970s the frontier for offshore development was 200 meters, today it is 4,000 meters.

There are ample supplies beneath the surface of the planet to have significant growth in oil supply for quite a number of years. The technology is there, the resources are there. But the real question is what happens above ground.

The starting point for energy security today as it has always been is diversification of supplies and sources.

This is a long-lead-time business; the investment horizon is five, 10 or 20 years. There's no switch to pull.

We are living in a new age of energy supply anxiety.