Production in the Gulf has risen dramatically and refinery input has also risen, these are good selling factors.

If winter is colder than expected then prices could rebound quite sharply.

The situations in Nigeria, Iran and Iraq remain uncertain. Fears of supply disruptions from these oil-producing nations remain.

The Iranian situation isn't going away. There are dangerous comments coming out of Iran on their nuclear testing and that will keep oil high.

There isn't the spare capacity to make up for the missing production in the Gulf of Mexico. OPEC used to have 4 to 5 million barrels of spare capacity. That's down to about 1.5 million barrels a day this year.

Larger imports apparently more than compensate for production losses in the Gulf.