People need to be convinced that it's a must have, and it's not clear that it is.

You're seeing price drops and government-sponsored initiatives in many countries, in an effort to get PCs in. But you're still facing low per capita income and an immature economic structure.

Vendors are likely to see a fundamental shift in the market as they come to grips with the steep decline in mature-market desk-based growth and are forced to seek growth in other market segments.

End-user concerns about availability and value of these new technologies could result in some buyers holding off PC purchases until later in 2006 or beyond.

The next two years will produce a turning point for the PC industry.

As recent earnings announcements illustrate, vendors are facing strong competitive pressures. These pressures are only likely to intensify if unit growth slows. Vendors may have little choice other than to cut prices or offer more lower-cost, de-featured machines.