Our estimation of how Windows 2000 will be adopted is fairly slow. While that trend is going on, we [also] see the growth in Web-oriented applications, and as they move in that direction, the tie to Windows 2000 is lessened.

For database servers, app servers, and Web servers, the tools are all there now, or have been announced and will be shortly.

The issue is whether a collection of server appliances performing the same functions as one multi-purpose server can be administered as one computer -- inputting user names only once, managing the network from one management console, etc. Until that happens, it won't reach a high level of acceptance because of administrative costs.

Media reports often leave the impression that Windows NT is being adopted by organizations of all sizes for every conceivable mission and that organizations are abandoning their investments in other operating environments. However, when IDC shines the light of empirical research on Windows NT usage, a different view emerges.

In many cases, Windows NT has been brought in to work alongside the operating environments that were already in place in the mid-1990s -- supporting the organization's application portfolios rather than replacing them.

Microsoft is very good at momentum marketing. It can turn reports of strong growth in revenues, software licenses shipments, or clients being supported into a message that Windows NT is becoming the de facto standard.